Affix Slot Expansion Rates

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Part of the March 5th update includes the relaxation of slot expansion penalties when performing item synthesis.

In case you don’t know, when you wish to turn say a 1-slot unit into a 2-slot unit you will need to expand it. This is done by selecting 2 abilities instead of 1, by putting one of the abilities in the “Extra Slot”. You can read about some of the intricacies of ability/affix transferring on the Bumped guide here. 

The Rates

So what are the new rates? Well it appears they’re relaxing the penalty by 10% of their original rates (so not a flat reduction of 10). This is derived from two screenshots at Shougai here. 

It displays two synthesis attempts, one before and one after the raised rates with the same affixes and both are expanding from 3 to 4 slots.

  • Body I 60% -> 66%
  • Stamina II 34% -> 38%
  • Power III 34% -> 38%
  • Freeze II 24% -> 26%

Not a massive difference, is it?

Under the old system, this incurs a penalty of 60% when two ingredient items are used. The base success rates for each affix here is as follows:

  • Body I 100%
  • Stamina II 60%
  • Power III 60%
  • Freeze II 40%

Doesn’t take much mathematical prowess to determine that 60% of 100 (100 * 0.6) = 60 and that the new penalty rate is therefore 66%. This would be 60 raised by 10%, or 60 * 1.1. You can test that against the other numbers:

  • 60 * 0.66 =  39.6 (rounded down to 39)
  • 40 * 0.66 = 26.4 (rounded down to 26)

No other examples are shown, but assuming its the same for all levels of expansion, then the new rates are as follows:

When using 1 ingredient item:

  • 0 – 1:  80% -> 88%
  • 1 – 2: 70% -> 77%
  • 2 – 3: 60% -> 66%
  • 3 – 4: 50% -> 55%
  • 4 -5: 45% -> 49%
  • 5 – 6: 40% -> 44%
  • 6 – 7: 35% -> 39%
  • 7 – 8: 30% -> 33%

When using 2 ingredient items:

  • 0 – 1:  80% -> 88%
  • 1 – 2: 75% -> 82%
  • 2 – 3: 70% -> 77%
  • 3 – 4: 60% -> 66%
  • 4 -5: 55% -> 59%
  • 5 – 6: 50% -> 55%
  • 6 – 7: 40% -> 44%
  • 7 – 8: 35% -> 39%
Real Odds of Success

Of course, when we’re affixing items we want all of the slots to succeed. Remember that in item synthesis, every single slot has its own individual dice roll. This means the probability of all slots succeeding and us not cursing Dudu’s name is all of the individual probabilities multiplied together. For example, if two slots are both 80% then the chance that both will succeed is 0.8 * 0.8, which equals 0.64. This is going to get painful…

When using 1 ingredient item:

  • 0 – 1:  80% -> 88%
  • 1 – 2: 49% -> 59%
  • 2 – 3: 21% -> 28%
  • 3 – 4: 6% -> 9%
  • 4 -5: 1.8% -> 2.8%
  • 5 – 6: 0.4% -> 0.7%
  • 6 – 7: 0.06% -> 0.13%
  • 7 – 8: 0.006% -> 0.01%

When using 2 ingredient items:

  • 0 – 1:  80% -> 88%
  • 1 – 2: 56% -> 67%
  • 2 – 3: 34% -> 45%
  • 3 – 4: 13% -> 19%
  • 4 -5: 5% -> 7%
  • 5 – 6: 1.5% -> 2.7%
  • 6 – 7: 0.1% -> 0.3%
  • 7 – 8: 0.02% -> 0.05%

All figures are rounded. These numbers also assume that all the affixes have a base rate of 100%. Nasty, isn’t it? The range that seems to really gain anything noteworthy is the 2-3 slot range. This just means the odds are a tad more in your favor when creating 3-slot junk. 4 slot and beyond is going to feel almost no different to how it was before.

So yeah, can’t say I’m massively impressed by the rate boost if this is what it turns out to be, but it does at least make forcing slots up to 3 a tad more feasible, which is about as much as a player will need for almost all the content in the game. The only time you would need more is for competitive Time-Attacks and if you don’t do those, I really wouldn’t bother.

If you come away from this article not knowing what the fuck then either I’ve made this too confusing, in which case sorry, or you just don’t get how ability transferring works. Don’t worry if it’s the latter, this system is needlessly confusing at times., particularly when aiming for certain results…

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